Iowa

  1. The final polling data out of Iowa indicate a race that’s considerably closer than 2008, when President Obama beat John McCain by double digits. Two polls released Monday from Public Policy Polling and ARG show Obama +2 and Romney +1, respectively.

    A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend sampled 800 likely voters and found a five-point Obama lead.

    President Obama’s narrow lead in the polls is a major departure from 2008, when he had a commanding 15 point lead on the eve of the election but, despite the massive disparity in the polls early voting turnout from 2012 and 2008 is virtually identical. 

    As of Friday, more than 640,000 votes had been cast in Iowa; 42.3 percent by registered Democrats, 32.1 percent by Republicans and 25.6 percent by voters who do not identify with either party.

    In 2008, the early voting proportions were almost exactly the same; as a result Obama was able to build up a lead large enough to absorb a significant McCain push on election day.

    So if turnout seems to be holding steady in Obama’s favor, why such a disparity in the polls? One reason is that Obama is seriously under-performing with independent voters this time around. The final 2008 Des Moines Register poll showed Obama with a 54/31 lead with independents; this year the same poll found Romney leading that group 41/37.

    A Romney surge is likely on its way today  in Iowa, the only question is whether Obama’s early-voting advantage will hold.

  2. President Obama closed his campaign in Des Moines on Monday night in front of a reported crowd of 20,000.
Photo by the Washington Post's David Nakamura.

    President Obama closed his campaign in Des Moines on Monday night in front of a reported crowd of 20,000.

    Photo by the Washington Post's David Nakamura.

    Washington Post »

  3. As election day draws ever nearer, new polls show President Obama ahead of opponent Mitt Romney in three battleground states: New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin.

    All three states are tightly contested, but New Hampshire’s race is perhaps the closest of them, with Obama holding a slim lead of 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters.

  4. One of CNN’s latest election coverage projects breaks the voting numbers down and makes things slightly easier to visualize as the presidential candidates enter the final stretch of the election neck and neck.

    The infographic page displays a national range across the top of the page with results of nine battleground states below.

    Currently, the chart shows Romney leading nationally by one percent. Of the nine swing states CNN has coverage of, Romney has the advantage in Florida, however Obama has the lead in the other eight.

    Take a look at the charts for yourself and check back for updates.

    CNN »

  5. It seems that Iowa’s drought-ridden farm land is proving useful yet.
An enthusiastic pair of Iowa landowners devoted their land to a surprisingly artful depiction of Mitt Romney; the photo was taken by two Romney supporters in an airplane.

    It seems that Iowa’s drought-ridden farm land is proving useful yet.

    An enthusiastic pair of Iowa landowners devoted their land to a surprisingly artful depiction of Mitt Romney; the photo was taken by two Romney supporters in an airplane.

    blogs.desmoinesregister.com »

  6. The Des Moines Register’s interactive voting guide lets you weigh in on Iowa’s national races issue-by-issue.

  7. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released yesterday showed President Obama with a substantial lead in Iowa, 51/43 over Mitt Romney among likely voters.

    The poll was conducted October 15-17, meaning that the second presidential debate was accounted for only in the last day of polling.

    While Mitt Romney has enjoyed something of a comeback in the polls recently, the trend lines seem to show that President Obama has weathered the storm in Iowa. A September NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also showed an eight point lead for Obama, 50/42.

    Early voting data show Democrats outpacing Republicans by about 18 points in Iowa’s crucial early-voting period. More than 300,000 ballots have already been cast in Iowa.

  8. So, Iowa, everybody here has heard of the New Deal; you’ve heard of the fair deal; you’ve heard of the square deal. Mitt Romney is trying to sell you a Sketchy Deal.”

    - President Obama, testing his newest anti-Romney zinger on a crowd at Cornell College in Mount Vernon, Iowa on Wednesday.
  9. President Obama campaigned at Iowa’s Cornell College on Wednesday, fresh off Tuesday night’s debate. The Obama campaign stormed the crucial swing state this week, dispatching the president as well as the surrogate-to-end-all-surrogates, Bruce Springsteen, in Ames on Thursday.
(Photo by Ian Servin of The Daily Iowan)

    President Obama campaigned at Iowa’s Cornell College on Wednesday, fresh off Tuesday night’s debate. The Obama campaign stormed the crucial swing state this week, dispatching the president as well as the surrogate-to-end-all-surrogates, Bruce Springsteen, in Ames on Thursday.

    (Photo by Ian Servin of The Daily Iowan)

  10. Since early voting began in Iowa on September 27, more than 264,000 votes have been cast, 15.6 percent of the total 2008 turnout statewide, and the early returns seem to be breaking hard for President Obama.

    50.2 percent of the ballots cast belonged to registered Democrats; only 29.8% were cast by registered Republicans.

    With just under three weeks until election day, Iowa is already well over halfway to matching its early voting tally from 2008, when about 448,000 people voted early.

    Recent history suggests that high early voting turnout may crucial to an Obama victory in Iowa. In 2008, when early-voter turnout broke 46/31 in favor of Democrats, Barack Obama was able to take Iowa by a double digit margin despite being beaten narrowly by John McCain in votes cast on Election Day.

    It is unclear whether Obama will enjoy such a comfortable lead heading into November 6 this year: 19.9 percent of early ballots were cast by registered independents whose support may have shifted away from the president to some degree in this election cycle.

    For more early voting data, check out this handy site.

About The 12

The 12 is a group Tumblr of The Washington Post and student journalists in 12 battleground states documenting the 2012 presidential election and capturing perspectives of young voters.

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