polls

  1. Politics PA grades the polls:  
Pollsters’ predictions of the 2012 campaigns in Pennsylvania showed conflicting results. Democratic and independent polls showed the Democrats held healthy leads, while Republican polls predicted much closer races. Republicans repeatedly claimed that Democrats were being oversampled, but in the end, their polls proved less accurate.

    Politics PA grades the polls:  

    Pollsters’ predictions of the 2012 campaigns in Pennsylvania showed conflicting results. Democratic and independent polls showed the Democrats held healthy leads, while Republican polls predicted much closer races. Republicans repeatedly claimed that Democrats were being oversampled, but in the end, their polls proved less accurate.

  2. The Miami Herald reports that 4.5 million people voted early in Florida, accounting for 38 percent of voters in the state. The early voter turn out could mean the presidential race will end early in Florida.

    "Democrats have a lead in total ballots cast over Republicans — 167,000 — but polls indicate Republican Mitt Romney is in a better position than President Barack Obama."

    The article also gave early voter data statistics that show Florida has racial divisions that give each campaign had strengths from different groups. The statistics were gathered by the Florida Center for Investigative Reporting and the Miami Herald. 
    According to the statistics:
    • African-American voters made up more than a quarter of Florida’s early votes, and about 90 percent of those ballots were from Democrats. 
    • Democratic Hispanic voters outnumbered Republican Hispanic voters, and 12 percent casted their votes early in-person. The Herald notes that the population of Puerto Rican voters in Central Florida who tend to have more liberal views are the Democrats’ strength. 
    • Non-Hispanic white voters make up 67 percent of the electorate and are more likely to show up to vote on Election Day in Florida than minorities.

    The Miami Herald also reports Romney is winning in the polls with the Non-Hispanic white vote. Obama will need the support of minority voters to win the state.

  3. The final polling data out of Iowa indicate a race that’s considerably closer than 2008, when President Obama beat John McCain by double digits. Two polls released Monday from Public Policy Polling and ARG show Obama +2 and Romney +1, respectively.

    A Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend sampled 800 likely voters and found a five-point Obama lead.

    President Obama’s narrow lead in the polls is a major departure from 2008, when he had a commanding 15 point lead on the eve of the election but, despite the massive disparity in the polls early voting turnout from 2012 and 2008 is virtually identical. 

    As of Friday, more than 640,000 votes had been cast in Iowa; 42.3 percent by registered Democrats, 32.1 percent by Republicans and 25.6 percent by voters who do not identify with either party.

    In 2008, the early voting proportions were almost exactly the same; as a result Obama was able to build up a lead large enough to absorb a significant McCain push on election day.

    So if turnout seems to be holding steady in Obama’s favor, why such a disparity in the polls? One reason is that Obama is seriously under-performing with independent voters this time around. The final 2008 Des Moines Register poll showed Obama with a 54/31 lead with independents; this year the same poll found Romney leading that group 41/37.

    A Romney surge is likely on its way today  in Iowa, the only question is whether Obama’s early-voting advantage will hold.

  4. As election day draws ever nearer, new polls show President Obama ahead of opponent Mitt Romney in three battleground states: New Hampshire, Iowa and Wisconsin.

    All three states are tightly contested, but New Hampshire’s race is perhaps the closest of them, with Obama holding a slim lead of 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters.

  5. According to the Huffington Post Election Dashboard, North Carolina has officially switched from a tossup state to a red state. The dashboard’s most recent model estimates that Mitt Romney leads President Obama 49.2 percent to 46.7.
However, the newest addition to the model, a poll out of Elon University, shows the state in a dead heat where both candidates have 45 percent of the vote.  
Check out the poll tracker for yourself to see how your state’s electoral votes stack up.

    According to the Huffington Post Election Dashboard, North Carolina has officially switched from a tossup state to a red state. The dashboard’s most recent model estimates that Mitt Romney leads President Obama 49.2 percent to 46.7.

    However, the newest addition to the model, a poll out of Elon University, shows the state in a dead heat where both candidates have 45 percent of the vote.  

    Check out the poll tracker for yourself to see how your state’s electoral votes stack up.

    The Huffington Post »

  6. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released yesterday showed President Obama with a substantial lead in Iowa, 51/43 over Mitt Romney among likely voters.

    The poll was conducted October 15-17, meaning that the second presidential debate was accounted for only in the last day of polling.

    While Mitt Romney has enjoyed something of a comeback in the polls recently, the trend lines seem to show that President Obama has weathered the storm in Iowa. A September NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also showed an eight point lead for Obama, 50/42.

    Early voting data show Democrats outpacing Republicans by about 18 points in Iowa’s crucial early-voting period. More than 300,000 ballots have already been cast in Iowa.

  7. Real Clear Politics polls show that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is almost tied with President Obama in Virginia. Other polls, like Rasmusssen Reports report Romney with a two-point lead following last week’s debates and the Romney family’s multiple visits to Virginia. Romney’s wife, Ann, visited cancer survivors in Chesterfield County. Later that week on Friday, Romney visited the county for a rally. Last month, Romney’s son, Craig, visited the local campaign office.

    Real Clear Politics polls show that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is almost tied with President Obama in Virginia. Other polls, like Rasmusssen Reports report Romney with a two-point lead following last week’s debates and the Romney family’s multiple visits to Virginia. Romney’s wife, Ann, visited cancer survivors in Chesterfield County. Later that week on Friday, Romney visited the county for a rally. Last month, Romney’s son, Craig, visited the local campaign office.

    realclearpolitics.com »

  8. Latest Colorado poll…
In a Gravis poll conducted after first debate, October 3-4,"Very likely" or "likely" voters for the candidates are:Romney: 48.2Obama: 44.9
It’s almost an exact reversal from Gravis poll conducted September 25:Romney: 44.8Obama: 48.1 

    Latest Colorado poll…

    In a Gravis poll conducted after first debate, October 3-4,
    "Very likely" or "likely" voters for the candidates are:
    Romney: 48.2
    Obama: 44.9

    It’s almost an exact reversal from Gravis poll conducted September 25:
    Romney: 44.8
    Obama: 48.1 

  9. The Fix has moved Ohio to “Lean Obama” after a new Washington Post Poll out Tuesday showed him up 52 percent to 44 percent over Mitt Romney.
Obama also has a lead in Florida in the new poll, though at 51-47 it is not statistically significant.

    The Fix has moved Ohio to “Lean Obama” after a new Washington Post Poll out Tuesday showed him up 52 percent to 44 percent over Mitt Romney.

    Obama also has a lead in Florida in the new poll, though at 51-47 it is not statistically significant.

    Washington Post »

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The 12 is a group Tumblr of The Washington Post and student journalists in 12 battleground states documenting the 2012 presidential election and capturing perspectives of young voters.

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